ProWein Business Report: The Future of Wine

The new ProWein Business Report examines the challenges, concerns, and trends of the industry.

Reading time: 5m 30s

ProWein Business Report (Source: Hochschule Geisenheim University)
ProWein Business Report (Source: Hochschule Geisenheim University)

Commissioned by ProWein, Geisenheim University surveyed over 1,300 experts from across the entire global wine value chain at the end of 2024 – for the eighth consecutive year. These industry insiders, representing more than 30 countries, include wine producers from key winegrowing regions in Europe and overseas, exporters, importers, specialist wine retailers, and representatives from the gastronomy, hotel, and catering sectors.

This year's report features an improved methodology to capture the diverse perspectives and conditions across different countries and regions. For the first time, responses for both the producer and trade indices are representatively weighted based on OIV data, allowing for a more comprehensive and balanced overview.

The ProWein Business Report continues the tradition of the ProWein Market Barometer, a unique and recurring instrument that has been illuminating the international wine industry since 2017. The 2025 report highlights the key challenges the industry faces amidst the ongoing economic crisis and emphasizes solutions that industry experts believe can help the wine trade adapt to changing consumer demands.

“The wine industry is at a pivotal crossroads."

“The wine industry is at a pivotal crossroads. While the worst effects of rising costs for producers appear to have been overcome in most countries, producers and the wine trade now face the challenge of adapting to rapidly changing consumer preferences,” explains Prof. Simone Loose, Head of the Institute for Wine and Beverage Business at Geisenheim University. She points to a key finding of the ProWein Business Report: “Developing new products and finding innovative communication strategies will be essential to ensuring wine remains competitive against other beverages. For the sector’s value creation, it is crucial to continue conveying the benefits of premium products to today’s consumers and the next generation.”

Overcoming challenges

Economic challenges and shifting consumer behavior remain the biggest concerns for the wine industry. While cost pressures have eased slightly, declining from an index value of 73 to 65, they continue to pose a significant challenge, particularly for producers in Germany, the USA, the New World, and Spain, as well as retailers in the UK and Ireland.

Reduced consumer purchasing power and the global economic slowdown continue to impact the global wine trade. About half of producers and trade experts cite declining wine consumption due to health concerns and a shift towards alternative beverages as critical challenges. This issue is particularly pronounced in North America and among producers in Austria, Portugal, and Germany.

Awareness of stricter alcohol policies has also risen significantly in the past two surveys, with industry concerns increasing by roughly ten index points each year. Currently, 43% of experts see stricter alcohol policies as a central challenge. This concern is particularly pronounced among retailers in Belgium and the UK/Ireland, as well as producers in the New World, Austria, and Portugal. Addressing these challenges will require coordinated industry efforts, improved communication, and strategic product portfolio adjustments.

Meanwhile, international trade restrictions remain a persistent threat. The new US president and China's global trade policies are perceived as major risks, especially by wine producers in France, who view these issues as significant challenges for the coming years.

Mixed outlook

The economic situation in 2024 paints a mixed picture for wine producers and the wine trade. While most producer countries experienced a slight decline compared to 2023, this downward trend was particularly pronounced among wine producers in Germany. In contrast, producers in Portugal and the New World reported a significant improvement in their economic conditions. Looking ahead to 2025, producers from Portugal, the New World, Spain, and France are optimistic, while those in Italy, Austria, and Germany anticipate less favorable economic prospects.

For the retail and HoReCa sectors, most countries see a slight improvement in their economic situation for 2024 compared to 2023, with Germany as a notable exception. Expectations for 2025 are more positive in Southern Europe, the Netherlands, and the UK/Ireland, where slight improvements are anticipated. However, retailers and the hospitality industry in Austria and Switzerland, Eastern Europe, and Germany remain more cautious and less optimistic about the coming year.

Sales volume and pricing strategies

Most producers reported a decline in sales volume for 2024, with the decline particularly pronounced among producers in Germany, France, and Austria. Portugal was the only country where a higher proportion of producers reported an increase in sales volume.

On the trade side, retailers in the Netherlands and Southern Europe managed to increase their sales volumes. However, other regions, notably North America, Austria, Switzerland, and Germany, experienced significant declines.

In addition to declining sales volumes, most producers observed a shift towards lower price points, particularly among producers in Portugal, France, and the New World. This trend aligns with reports from the trade.

While price increases were observed in the Netherlands, Germany, and Austria, consumers in the UK/Ireland, Scandinavia, and North America traded down to lower-priced products, indicating a shift in purchasing behavior.

Premiumization

Retailers anticipate that current trends in the wine market will continue, albeit with notable regional variations. Only retailers in the Netherlands and Germany expect slight growth in the market share of premium and super-premium wines. In contrast, retailers in North America, Austria, Switzerland, and Scandinavia anticipate a decline in these segments.

For wines in the medium segment, retailers in the Netherlands, Southern Europe, and Scandinavia predominantly foresee an increase in market share, while those in North America and Eastern Europe expect a decline.

The majority of retailers and the hospitality industry expect an increase in the market share of wines in the entry-level price segment (popular wines). This expectation is particularly strong in Austria/Switzerland, the UK/Ireland, Scandinavia, and Germany.

Over the past two decades, premiumization has driven the success of the wine sector, enabling growth in trade value despite stagnating global wine volume. However, industry experts are increasingly questioning whether this strategy can remain sustainable in the future.

Only half of industry experts believe that premium and super-premium wines can withstand an economic downturn. Moreover, 50% of the wine trade acknowledges that current pricing for super-premium wines has reached excessively high levels, limiting their future growth potential.

In light of these concerns, the wine industry must innovate and develop strategies to engage younger generations who will eventually replace today's premium wine consumers. The majority of industry experts agree that adapting marketing and communication strategies will be crucial to appealing to new consumer segments. Building a stronger connection between premium products and sustainability, lifestyle integration, and unique experiences will be critical to maintaining relevance and ensuring long-term growth in a competitive market.

Sparkling, white, and alcohol-free

In 2024, the trade and hospitality sectors are observing a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with stronger sales of sparkling wine, white wine, rosé, as well as low-alcohol and alcohol-free wines. Experts anticipate these trends will persist in the coming years.

Sparkling wines and white wines top the list of trending products across all international markets. However, preferences for low-alcohol and de-alcoholized wines show significant regional variations. Wines with lower alcohol content are particularly popular in Southern and Eastern Europe, as well as Scandinavia, while alcohol-free or de-alcoholized wines have strong growth potential in the Netherlands, Germany, and Austria.

Interestingly, other non-alcoholic beverages like kombucha and 'sparkling tea' are closely following de-alcoholized wines in popularity, particularly in the UK/Ireland, Belgium, and the Netherlands.

Red wines are perceived as less in demand than de-alcoholized wines in many markets, except in Southern and Eastern Europe, where they remain more popular. Natural and orange wines are more frequently cited as products with future potential in the UK/Ireland, Southern Europe, and the Netherlands.

When asked about products with demand potential, fortified wines, flavored wines, and proxy wines (editor's note: proxy wines are non-alcoholic beverages developed with, for example, fruit juices, herbs, or spices to mimic the complexity and flavor profile of wine) are rarely mentioned. Flavored wines are also rarely cited at the moment but achieve higher potential in Eastern Europe than average.

These rapidly changing consumer preferences present a significant challenge for producers and retailers who need to adjust their portfolios and develop new products to meet these demands. Prof. Dr. Simone Loose

About the study

This study was commissioned by ProWein and conducted by the Institute for Wine and Beverage Business at Geisenheim University, under the direction of Prof. Dr. Simone Loose. Geisenheim University is  internationally recognized for its excellence in wine science research and education.

ProWein and Geisenheim University are committed to the continued success of the ProWein Business Report in the coming years. This initiative serves as a unique, global, and recurring "market barometer" that addresses key industry issues and explores specific focus topics annually.

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