Is what’s happening in the wine world a structural change, or merely a cyclical one? Rodolphe Lameyse believes it’s structural.
“In the wine business, everything is stopped. Nothing happens, whether you are in the UK, whether you are in Europe, whether you are in China, and this is an issue.”
But for all that, he sees grounds for optimism.
Lameyse has a better view of the wine trade than most. He’s the CEO of Vinexposium, born when exhibition companies Vinexpo and Comexposium joined forces. Under his leadership, their event Wine Paris, once a regional French show, has grown into an international powerhouse. In that role, Lameyse travels the globe, keeping up with what’s happening at Vinexposiums’ many international fairs, which include the World Bulk Wine Exhibition in Amsterdam, as well as fairs in Singapore and Hong Kong, among others.
What’s coming next
“I’m an optimistic guy by nature,” Lameyse explains over Zoom, explaining that he believes the trade has been hit by uncertainty. “Uncertainty is very bad for business. Everybody was very cautious about what could happen in the US. Now we know that Trump is going to be the next president, so one uncertainty has been lifted.”
But only one. In Germany, the government has collapsed. In France the government is collapsing, and in the UK, “they have these crazy rules both on the legislation and the taxes.” Meanwhile, China’s government is injecting money into the economy and “this may ease the market.”
Lameyse plucks a snow globe off his table and starts shaking it vigorously. “This is my crystal ball,” he says. “I’m shaking it, and I can see the future.”
He stops shaking and frowns. “Commercial war between the US and the rest of the world, because Donald Trump is that kind of guy. So war with China, war with Europe. Of course, Europe is a bit less of a threat for the US.”
That’s going to be a big problem for the steel industry, he believes.
“The UK believes they will make a trade agreement with the US, which has not happened with Joe Biden. I don’t see why it will happen with Donald Trump,” Lameyse goes on, giving the snow globe a gentle shake every now and then. “It’s going to be an opportunity for the UK, Europe and China to resume a bit of discussion between us.”
He notes that if China can no longer access the US market, they will need somewhere else to go, “so there might be an ease in the discussion and the Chinese engine might start again. I think China will also have to turn up the volume on its internal consumption.”
The impact of tariffs
Wine Paris will be the first wine trade show to take place after Trump becomes president. “It will be interesting to watch the dynamic, because the first announcements will arrive quickly.” says Lameyse. “People will have had time to adjust to the fact that he will be president, so I think it will be an important moment in terms of business.”
His snow globe shaking suddenly gets more vigorous. When it comes to tariffs, he notes that the previous Trump tariffs were partly about the Airbus-Boeing rivalry. “They were really designed to target Germany, Spain and France against Italy. I don’t believe it’ll happen again, because it’s a known recipe. It’s more looking for tariffs for everybody.”
He believes there will be tariffs against China, and then maybe 20% tariffs on wine from around the world entering the US market. But Lameyse doesn’t believe this will drive American consumers towards local wines, because wines aren’t particularly substitutable—plus American wine can be expensive.
That doesn’t mean that European producers can breathe a sigh of relief. “The main challenge for wines in general is to make them attractive again in front of the end consumers. Price is important, but you need to speak to your consumers.”
His view is that the number one job ahead of the wine trade is to reach young consumers. “They drink less alcohol than we did when we were younger, but that’s good, because wine is moderation. So how do we make wine attractive to them?”
Lameyse believes it’s about “telling them that wine is about sharing, caring and it’s a culture. I am not too convinced that the marketing materials make sense for this generation. But at the same time, they’re interested about wine, so I think there is something we can do here.”
He puts his snow globe down. But he has one more prediction.
Things will begin to take off again in 2025, though slowly and gradually. But by 2026, the business landscape will be much better, including for wine.
The crystal ball has spoken.
Don't forget to subscribe to our newsletter. Be the first to know and never miss out on important updates.
