Those who believe that wine and politics should be kept firmly apart may struggle to make their case over the next few weeks when voters in three countries go to the polls. Industry professiomals based in Europe, in particular, may find themselves biting their nails.
For starters, there are the former Soviet republics of Moldova and Georgia. Together, they have a population smaller than 7m - a little over half as many as in the key US swing state of Pennsylvania, where people will also be going out to vote.
In recent years, these two largely wine-focused countries have been leaning strongly towards Europe and EU membership, especially since the invasion of Ukraine. It is widely forgetten that, in 2008, Europe’s first war of this century began with the invasion of Georgia by Russia, which ended after a few days with a ceasefire and an ever-shifting demarcation line between the Russian enclave of South Ossetia and the rest of the country. Since 1992, there have been Russian troops in South Ossetia, as well as in the Moldova enclave of Transnistria.
Last weekend, in an ‘irreversible’ referendum, 1.5m Moldovan citizens supported EU membership by the narrowest of margins - 50.39% - and gave the pro-European incumbent, Maia Sandu, 42% of the vote in a presidential election, setting set her up for a second round in two weeks against the pro-Russian Socialists led by Alexandr Stoianoglo.
Alleged interference
The closeness of the referendum vote surprised many, especially after multiple polls showing support for the EU at 60%. Both the EU - through a spokesman - and the government - through the national police chief, Viorel Cernăuțanu - accused Moscow of “unprecedented interference” and a “mafia-style” bribing 130,000 Moldovans - nearly 10% of the normal electorate.
Sandu, who became president in December 2020 was instrumental in starting EU accession negotiations in June of this year. She is far from sure of winning the second round, however, and if she fails, Moldova’s likelihood of membership any time soon will slip, In any case, there are democratic and judicial hurdles to clear even if she gets her second term.
Dream time
Georgia’s elections will be held on October 26th. Current polls suggest that the Georgian Dream (GD) party, in power since 2012, has lost support and will be forced into a coalition. Many European wine industry members watching the region will wish this to be the case. If, however, the polls here prove to be as unreliable as in Moldova, and GD were to win, this country too, would take a big step back from EU membership. Despite the inclusion of the EU flag in its logo, and its negotiation of candidate status, GD has moved towards a closer relationship with Russia, while stating that it only wants to be a member on its own terms.
These appear to include the banning of the UNM, Georgia’s largest opposition party, a move which would, in itself, make the country ineligible for EU membership.
Return to tariffs?
And then, of course, on Tuesday November 5th, America will go to the polls. For many US wine professionals, a crucial issue will be Donald Trump’s statements about tariffs. Importers remember the impact on their French, German and Spanish imports of the 25% tariff the former president imposed during his last term and, judging by his rhetoric, might well reintroduce. Trump has described tariffs as "the most beautiful word in the dictionary" and proposed imposing them at a level of 10-60% on all imported goods - presumably including wine.
Of course, domestic US wine producers with excess stock might welcome a Trump win for precisely the same reason.
By November 6th the results of all three contests may be known. Or they may not. There is every likelihood that the one in Georgia will go to a second round, as has happened in Moldova and, given the apparent closeness of the race, the one in the US may also take some time to resolve, possibly including recounts and disputes in its very own state of Georgia.
Whatever one’s political stance, these are, as the Chinese curse would say, ‘interesting times’.
