The data from 2023 revealed many challenges: global wine consumption, declined by 2.6% compared to 2022, according to the OIV. In 2024, things became even worse, with U.S. consumption—still the world’s largest market—dropping 4% in the first seven months alone (IWSR). The decline is expected to persist, driven by rising prices, inflationary pressures, changing consumer habits (especially but non exclusively among Gen Z), and increasing anti-alcohol messaging from bodies like the WHO. Regulations such as the Europe’s Beating Cancer Plan, which targets a 10% reduction in alcohol use by 2025, are also influencing the market, with more regulation likely to come.
Yet despite these headwinds, new opportunities are emerging.
Trends and Opportunities
Emerging Markets
While global markets may not return to pre-COVID levels soon, emerging markets offer growth potential.
Eastern Europe:
Romania recorded 20% growth in 2023 (OIV), reaching 3 million hectolitres. By 2025, revenues are projected to hit €0.7 billion (Statista). Poland, already a €2 billion market, is expected to grow 5–7% by 2025. Both countries show a steady shift from fruit wines to grape wines.
India:
Though traditionally not a wine-drinking country, consumption is expected to grow nearly 12% annually from 2023 to 2027 (Euromonitor). Per capita consumption remains low at less than 0.03 litres per year, and the market is still highly regulated. But with a population of 1.428 billion, the market’s potential is enormous, bolstered by trade agreements like the India-EFTA deal signed in 2024.
Africa:
Côte d’Ivoire is now the continent’s leading wine importer, surpassing Angola and South Africa. Imports rose by 22% in 2023 totalling $64 million (USDA). The rising middle class and shifting consumer habits are driving demand, with Sagaci Research noting that historical ties to France have fostered a stronger preference for wine.
Which types of wine are particularly successful in African markets?
Chinedu: Sparkling wines are growing in popularity as Africa’s hot climate and love for celebration make them a natural fit. Fruity and semi-sweet wines are also very successful, as their sweetness balances the spice in African cuisine, appealing to new wine drinkers. Experienced consumers, however, tend to shift towards full-bodied, rich, and fruity wines with greater complexity.
What are the key dos for exporting to Africa?
Chinedu: The top dos—I believe for most markets—are:
- Respect the choices, languages, and traditions of African consumers.
- Engage a knowledgeable and experienced local liaison to help find the best partners.
- Visit Africa yourself and meet with end consumers—it’s an eye-opening experience.
- Be open to the differences in market dynamics.
And what shouldn’t you do?
Chinedu: Again, these are issues that apply to most markets:
- Do not prejudge the African market.
- Avoid coming with preconceived notions about how to do business in Africa; instead, learn and remain open to change.
- Don’t force your product—adapt it to better suit the needs of your clients.
Chinedu Rita Rosa is founder and CEO of Vines by Rosa SARL.
Low- and No-Alcohol Products
The low- and no-alcohol wine category is set for significant growth, with Maia Research projecting a 22.62% increase by 2029. Ready-to-drink beverages are forecast to grow 14.2% over the same period (Daedal Research).
Producers are experimenting with new flavours, adding notes like baked apple or green tea instead of simply increasing sweetness. Premiumization is also emerging: French Bloom launched a non-alcoholic champagne at €100, and Germany’s Jörg Geiger offers sparkling non-alcoholic wine in magnum bottles for €50.
While traditionally seen as price-sensitive, the category is shifting, particularly in sparkling wines. If this trend continues, consumers might take non-alcoholic products more seriously.
For the wine industry, there’s the chance to innovate and create additional revenue streams. Why not, for instance, invest in wine-based, low-alcohol cocktails, ideally in a can? In Sweden, a country with strict alcohol regulations, products with up to 2.5% ABV can be sold in supermarkets. Meanwhile, the beer industry has demonstrated the effectiveness of using non-alcoholic beer as a marketing tool.
New Technologies
2025 is shaping up to be the year of AI. In vineyards, AI and data analytics have been transforming viticulture for some time. NASA satellites monitor diseases and drought stress, while analytics deepen insights into weather patterns and soil conditions, enabling optimized harvests and improved quality.
In marketing, AI's potential is even greater. Advanced customer data analysis, automated workflows, and personalized engagement are unlocking fresh sales opportunities. However, these advances require structural adaptation within businesses—change management will be crucial for many producers.
In retail, predicting consumer preferences will be key. Sommelier bots offering perfect pairings and next-gen shopping AI delivering personalized experiences based on past behaviour and clever algorithms are poised to revolutionize the customer journey; 2025 will test whether these innovations can meet the high expectations they’ve generated.
Next-Generation Communication
Global social media penetration is projected to reach 75.3% by 2027. Already, 50% of U.S. internet users aged 16-24 prefer discovering brands on social media over traditional web searches, and 97% of Gen Z uses social media for shopping inspiration (IMF).
Quick, direct engagement is critical to capturing short attention spans, while personalized storytelling with strong visuals and human faces is essential to drive emotional connection. Micro-influencers can effectively target niche audiences, but despite the rise of social selling, it’s still not the primary method for purchasing products. Only 22% of consumers currently prefer shopping via social media (IMF). Traditional e-commerce remains vital.
Opportunities Ahead
Overall, 2025 will bring its challenges, but it also holds significant opportunities for those ready to adapt and innovate.
This article was also published in 'Voice of the Industry', Vinexpo's new magazine for wine and spirits professionals, just in time for Wine Paris.
