More active than 2023
The bulk market in 2024 reassumed something of its traditional character following a distinctly slow 2023, with buying activity and inventory levels differing between supplier countries. Some countries have a shorter supply of specific wines, leading to activity upticks and price rises. For example, the markets for white wines in Italy and Chile have been busy. Pre-harvest contracting of Chile’s 2025 varietal white wines is already well-advanced following the country’s small 2024 crush. Varietal and generic white wine supply feels balanced globally, given South Africa’s lack of stock.
Two years of short crops
The main cause of any tighter, more active markets has not been increases in retailer/distributor demand but two consecutive years of lighter crops: the OIV’s estimates of world wine production in 2023 (237 million hectolitres) and 2024 (a mid-range projection of 231 million hectolitres) are well down from the 2018-2022 average of 267 million hectolitres and would be the smallest output since the early 1960s. Climatic conditions were an important factor, but there have also been vineyard removals, particularly in France, California, Australia, and Chile. Growers have carried out other steps to keep spending to a minimum: mothballing vines, farming minimally, leaving grapes unpicked.
Opportunities
For every area of balance on the bulk market, there are many areas of opportunity. For example: 2023 Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc is now priced competitively with New Zealand GI Sauvignon Blanc; 2024 southern French Pinot Grigio is priced competitively with Italy’s Pinot Grigio; higher-end Californian and Chilean wines currently offer an attractive price-quality ratio for mid-tier wine programmes; Argentinian Malbec has reduced in price by 20% through 2024.
Painful but necessary rightsizing
Wine’s retail sales volumes in major markets such as the US, UK and France continued to fall in 2024. Until consumption stabilises, bulk wine needs will often be incremental, fewer grapes will be required, and vineyard surface will shrink. Ongoing consumer pessimism (partly a reflection of earnings growth lagging 2021-23 inflation), demographic change, health messaging, and proliferating alternative products, are not going away in 2025. But the painful supply adjustments the wine industry has been undertaking over the past two years should help ensure it is better placed to meet the incremental, just-in-time buying activity that is becoming the norm.
Buyers requiring quick sampling, loading and bottling should get in touch with the Ciatti team, able to draw upon a global network of regional offices to meet just-in-time needs. Ciatti can also assist suppliers in finding good homes for their grapes and wines: don’t hesitate to get in touch. The team would like to wish all of its clients, friends and associates a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
