Shorter crops except in Spain
France and Italy are currently projected to produce crops short of their five-year averages by 11% and 12.8% respectively, while California is on course for a harvest – we estimate at 3.2-3.3 million tons – short by long-term historical standards but not far off the 3.5 million tons that is the five-year average. Only Spain’s crop is expected to near its average.
Bulk market calm
News of crop shortfalls has not stimulated much extra activity on the bulk market. Last year, Italy experienced its shortest crop in five decades, boosting demand levels in Spain and, in turn, further afield. Partly in response to that demand, Spanish prices have since increased and this year’s Italy’s crop – although short of the average again – is expected to be 7% larger than last year’s. Consequently, the buying campaign this year is starting noticeably calmer.
Early discussions urged on 2025 white wines
After 12 months of shorter crops, however, some bulk items – mainly generic wines and varietal whites – have become harder to find. Potential buyers of 2025 varietal whites from Chile and South Africa are recommended to get in touch earlier than normal. Globally, reds are generally more abundant, with many highly-attractive opportunities available on some very good-quality wines.
Challenging sales continue
It was hoped that 2024 would bring a stabilisation of sales volumes after a period of retailer/distributor destocking following pandemic stockpiling in 2020-21. But this had not happened. In the US, for example, wine’s total retail sales volumes fell more than 6% in the 12 months to 10th August, according to NielsenIQ data. With similar economic and demographic factors at play, it is likely comparable trends are occurring in the major European markets, of which the International Organisation of Vine & Wine (OIV) found that, in 2023, only Spain registered a growth in sales.
Final-quarter sales boost?
Entering the important October-December period, consumer confidence in the US and UK is roughly in line with where it stood at the same stage last year, when festive-season wine sales volumes went on to be disappointing. Consumer confidence in France, Germany, Italy and Spain enters October-December slightly higher than last year. The industry will be hoping for, rather than expecting, a final-quarter sales boost.
The Ciatti team stands ready to match-up buyers with suppliers and – using its global network – assist in fulfilling just-in-time wine needs. Don’t hesitate to get in touch via info@ciatti.com.
