US tariff on wines
All wines from all producer countries are now subject to the US administration’s new “baseline” import tariff of 10%. Initially, imports from the EU (20%) and South Africa (30%) were to be subject to a tariff greater than 10%, but they have been given a 90-day reprieve: until at least 9th July, they join the rest of the world in being subject to the 10% baseline tariff.
Bottled wines more disadvantaged
We believe the US baseline tariff mainly disadvantages bottled wines as they are a finished product, incorporating the prior input costs of glass, cork, other packaging, labelling, winery marketing etc, as well as the wine itself. There has been some tentative evidence to suggest that the impact of tariffs on bottled still and sparkling imports into the US could potentially open up some opportunities for domestic alternatives to increase their presence at US retail.
Italy and France are the producer countries most exposed to US tariffs, due to the success on the US market of Prosecco, Champagne and their popular still wine appellations. Both Italy and France shipped extra wine consignments to the US market between November and March in anticipation of tariffs. There will now be concern as to how long the current 10% tariff lasts and the possibility of it rising.
Chilean market active
The prospect of tariff wars and the resulting economic uncertainty have been an additional drag on bulk wine activity. Most markets have been slow and steady. The exception is Chile: a projected 25% crush shortfall this year, plus limited carryover, has stimulated a big upswing in buying. Pricing in Chile has risen in the past two months and starts higher on the 2025 vintage that it was 12 months ago on the 2024 vintage.
Argentina removes peso controls
Argentina’s government has removed the “cepo” currency control that – since 2019 – had pegged the peso to a 1-2% per month devaluation against the US dollar. This removal immediately devalued the peso by 10%, from ARS1,100/dollar to ARS1,200/dollar, on its first day of free trading, Monday 14th April. The peso is now allowed to float freely in the ARS1,000-1,400/dollar band. The devaluation should help boost Argentina’s export competitiveness. An average-sized 2025 harvest, combined with large carryover stock levels and a 10-15% decline in the average grape price this year versus last, means Argentina’s bulk wine pricing was already declining and negotiable.
Very attractive grape and bulk wine sourcing opportunities are currently available. Ciatti’s experienced broker team is on hand to bring suppliers and buyers together in mutually beneficial relationships: don’t hesitate to reach out directly.
