Varying harvest fortunes
Argentina and South Africa’s 2025 harvests appear to be coming in close to their downwardly-adjusted long-term averages. Chile’s crush is now expected to be significantly short of the average due to a hotter-than-normal growing season reducing yield, compounding the impact of vineyard removals in recent years. However, white grape tonnages have been exceeding expectations in Australia and grape bunches look large and heavy in New Zealand.
Pockets of activity
The Southern Hemisphere has been focused on harvest. Northern Hemisphere markets have been dampened by flat or declining retail sales of wine, and some elevated bulk wine pricing in Spain. Pockets of activity have arisen: domestic demand in Chile has increased as crop expectations there have lowered; California’s bulk market continues to be more active since the turn of the year, as some buyers now require volumes after a prolonged period of foregoing purchasing; Italian wine exports to the US have been robust in anticipation of US import tariffs on EU products including wine.
Tariff wars
In response to US import tariffs, the most-populous Canadian provinces have placed an embargo on the sale of US alcohol, including wine. Canada is US wine’s leading export market. Tariff wars are – to say the least – unhelpful, injecting even more uncertainty into a wine industry working hard to come to terms with its structural supply-demand imbalance and changing consumer trends. But as our France page states this month: “Most in the industry remain sanguine and focused on growing sales where they can.”
Evolving supply
Necessity – being “the mother of invention” – has opened up new business avenues. Now available are high-quality growers, vineyards and wine supply historically tied up in contracts or other parts of the business. For example, California can now offer competitively-priced generic wines in addition to traditional export offerings like White Zinfandel; the Cognac region of France, adjusting to reduced brandy exports, is serious about supplying competitively-priced generic whites and sparkling bases to the wine market for the long-term; and as the traditional bottled wine avenues feel the sales squeeze, some redirected premium-quality wines are helping lift the overall quality of the bulk market’s offer.
Very attractive grape and bulk wine sourcing opportunities currently exist, while suppliers require sustainable pricing in the longer term to thrive. Ciatti’s experienced broker team is on hand to bring suppliers and buyers together in mutually beneficial relationships: don’t hesitate to reach out directly.
