Ciatti Report: Tight Supply, Trade Uncertainty & Changing Consumer Preferences in the Bulk Wine Market

Generic wine supply tight

The shorter 2023 and 2024 winegrape harvests around the world seem to have been most felt on the bulk generic wine market. Generic wines appear to be in tight supply in Europe, Chile and South Africa. This has led to some elevated generic wine prices, especially in Spain. Pricing increases in Spain since November have stimulated European interest in alternative sources such as France, Chile, and Argentina. The market for standard-quality varietal bulk wines is less tight, but supply of varietal whites does feel closer to some kind of balance than reds. White varietal carryover is low in Chile, South Africa, and Australia.
 

Harvest expectations

As harvesting gets underway in the Southern Hemisphere, early expectations are for average-sized crops. Chile’s crop is likely to be constrained by extensive vine removals over the past 24 months. Similar applies in South Africa, where lack of cashflow in recent years has reduced vineyard investment. Some grapes in Australia may not get picked in response to the slowness of the bulk red wine market. Non-harvesting of grapes may also occur in New Zealand, following the country’s large 2022 and 2023 harvests that have left 2023 carryover still in tank.
 

Tariff concerns

The recent US-Canada tariff dispute has added to industry fears around impediments to trade. As so often seems to be the case, wine was collateral damage: we believe retaliatory anti-American sentiment in Canada is likely to hurt sales of US wine in its most important export market for some months. Italy’s wine exports to the US increased after November’s presidential election, in anticipation of US tariffs on EU imports. So far, the new US administration’s tariffs on EU products have been confined to steel and aluminium.
 

Scope for innovation

ProWein’s 2025 Business Report says the industry needs to be redoubling its focus on meeting “rapidly changing consumer preferences”. We are seeing more conversations on the market regarding products from low/no-alcohol wines through to high-alcohol flavoured wines (a trend in the US), and everything in between, such as RTD wine-based cocktails and spritzers. Supply currently exists on the bulk market to meet such innovations as well as the more conventional programmes. The Ciatti broker team can draw upon its global network to provide the latest bulk wine and grape opportunities.