Preliminary estimates as of August 1 suggest that French wine production in 2024 will be between 40 and 43m hl, falling short of both last year's 47.9 m hl and the five-year average of 44.2m hl. According to the report from the French Ministry of Agriculture's statistical office (SSP), a decline in production is expected across almost all wine regions. The expected volume will be below that of 2019 but still significantly higher than the "annus horribilis" of 2021, which saw production of 37.6m hl.
Under the weather
For specific wine categories, the SSP forecasts a decrease of 9 to 16% in AOP wines compared to the previous year, and a decline of between 22% and 28% for wines used in Eaux-de-Vie production. IGP wines are expected to see a drop of between 5 and 3%, while wines with no indication of origin indication are projected to decrease by 13 to 19%.
The expected volume will be below that of 2019 but still significantly higher 2021.
The primary cause for this downturn, according to the agency, is the prevalence of diseases that were mainly facilitated by the humid conditions at the start of summer. Frost and hail events have also locally reduced production volumes. Additionally, in many regions, the harvest was impacted by issues like poor fruit set and occasional small berry size, which resulted from cool and wet conditions during the flowering period. Reports from Languedoc-Roussillon and Corsica also mention drought damage, though this played a less significant role due to the well-hydrated soils from frequent rainfall, unlike in drier years like 2018 or 2022.
Significant cost increases
The challenging weather conditions of 2024 have further increased cost pressures for nearly all winemakers. Stéphane Gabard, President of the AOC Bordeaux Association, was quoted by Figaro Vin as highlighting that Oidium (powdery mildew) means "double the labour hours, double the treatments, double the costs, with teams being called out at night and on weekends," not to mention the increased fuel consumption for tractors. Gabard noted, "Resilience is the heart of our profession, but many have thrown in the towel this year."
Similar comments are being made by organically-certified producers whose spraying regime has involved treating their vines as many as 50 times this year. The experience of these producers and of ones who had part of their land in conversion is expected to slow the general trend towards switching to organic agriculture. Many French producers are thought likely to favour the HVE, sustainable options that are less rigorous. Organic viticulture is also facing increasing competition from regenerative farming which is believed to have more benefits for the soil, biodiversity and disease resistance.
"Resilience is the heart of our profession, but many have thrown in the towel this year."
With this year’s harvest results, France is expected to lose its gold medal as the world’s top wine producer to Italy. Italy, despite facing significant challenges such as hail, frost, and Oidium in the north and drought in the south, appears to have better adapted to these conditions. According to a survey by the weekly Tre Bicchieri, Gambero Rosso estimates that Italian wine production could potentially rise to 45m hl, up from 38m hl last year. Reliable figures from Italy are usually expected only in early September. Meanwhile, early forecasts from Spain suggest a potential 20% increase in production—amounting to 39.7m hl.
Followers of the bulk market will note this figure in the context of the likely shortage of inexpensive French wine with no geographic origin. The end of this year could be a very good time to be an exporter of Spanish bulk.
