German winemakers are expecting a significantly lower harvest in 2024 compared to 2023. According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the harvest volume is expected to be around 8.26m hl. This represents a decrease of 4.9% compared to the 2023 vintage, which amounted to 8.69m hl. The estimated 2024 harvest volume is also 7.3% below the six-year average (2018 to 2023), which stands at 8.91m hl.
Precipitation and Extreme Weather Events
The decline is attributed to the rainy spring, which in some regions promoted the development of fungal diseases, particularly downy mildew (Peronospora). Additionally, extreme weather events like spring frosts, hail, storms, and heavy rain have negatively impacted the grape harvest. As in previous years, more than half (59.6%) of the expected total volume is concentrated in the largest wine-growing regions: Rheinhessen (2.59m hl) and Pfalz (2.33m hl). Nearly another quarter (23.3%) is distributed between Baden (1.12m hl) and Württemberg (0.80m hl). The remaining 17.1% is shared among the other wine-growing areas.
Significant harvest losses
Many wine regions are experiencing yield losses compared to 2023. This is most evident in the regions of Saxony (-21,600 hl, -73%), Saale-Unstrut (-34,300 hl, -71.7%), and Ahr (-27,800 hl, -65.6%). Other regions significantly affected by reduced yields include Mosel (-225,300 hl, -30.7%), Franconia (-124,900 hl, -29.8%), and Baden (-151,600 hl, -11.9%).
However, there are some exceptions. Increases in harvest volumes compared to 2023 are expected for Rheinhessen (+171,400 hl, +7.1%), Pfalz (+44,800 hl, +2.0%), and Rheingau (+6,400 hl, +2.9%).
Less Riesling and Pinot Noir
The harvest volume of Riesling, Germany's most popular grape variety, is expected to decrease by 59,400 hl in 2024 compared to 2023. Forecasts indicate a total of 1.87m hl, a drop of 3.1%. The second and third most important white grape varieties in terms of volume, Müller-Thurgau and Pinot Gris (Grauburgunder), are also expected to see significant declines, with projections of 983,400 hl (-10.4%) and 619,000 hl (-11.7%), respectively. For Pinot Noir (Spätburgunder), the yield is estimated to decrease by 14.4% to 798,200 hl. In contrast, Dornfelder might see a slight increase, with an expected yield of 692,500 hl (+2.3%).
