The IWSR's growth outlook for traditional alcoholic beverage markets is muted. Over the five-year period from 2023 to 2028, market researchers expect only marginal growth of 1% or less in the alcohol industry across the USA, Spain, Australia, Italy, and the Netherlands. According to the study, France and Poland are expected to stagnate, while the UK, Japan, Germany, and Canada are anticipated to see a decline in value.
However, the British analysts see potential in the emerging markets of the alcohol industry. India, China, and Brazil are currently considered the industry’s most promising markets, followed by Mexico, South Africa, Vietnam, and Nigeria. The market researchers also identify the USA as a key player among these growth prospects.
Market expected to grow by $30bn over five years
Value growth from 2023 to 2028 is expected to be driven primarily by India, China, and the USA. The IWSR projects an increase in alcoholic beverage sales from these countries totaling $30bn (€27 bn, based on 2023 prices) by 2028. According to the study, India and the USA will each contribute a rise of $7.6bn (€6.9bn). Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Vietnam, and Nigeria are collectively expected to add $14.4bn (€13 bn) in value to alcohol sales by 2028.
"The shift from developed to emerging alcohol markets, which has been underway for some time, is not only continuing but intensifying," comments Emily Neill from the IWSR.
While India and the USA are expected to show similar absolute value growth between 2023 and 2028, there is a stark contrast in their projected growth rates. In the USA, the market is expected to grow by an annual rate of 0.8% during this period, whereas India is forecasted to achieve over 4% annual growth.
"Considering that the U.S. alcoholic beverage market is four times larger by volume and nearly six times larger by value than India's, the growth expected from India is quite remarkable," Neill adds.
Mexico and South Africa to see 3% annual growth
Among the other value-generating markets, Mexico and South Africa are expected to grow by 3% annually between 2023 and 2028, Brazil by 2%, and China by 1% (excluding national spirits).
Most emerging markets are forecasted to experience a significant increase in the population reaching the legal drinking age (with China being an exception), while mature markets are expected to see only a slight increase or even a decline in this demographic. In India, around 65m consumers are projected to reach legal drinking age over the next five years. KA
