Rarely has the word ‘moderate’ appeared so often in the space of so few paragraphs as it does in the press release for this influential report from the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM). Its 23 appearances include references to ‘moderate alcohol consumption’ and ‘moderate drinkers’ as well as to the ‘moderate certainty’ of the authors’ findings. (As opposed to the ‘low certainty’ of some of their other conclusions.)
Frustratingly for wine professionals, the report, which is crucially important because of its role in ‘inform[ing] the next edition of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans’, does not separate different forms of alcohol. Instead, it examined ‘evidence on the relationship between moderate alcohol consumption and eight specific health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, all-cause mortality, and certain types of cancer.’
Drink moderately, live longer
The headline finding, published with 'moderate' certainty, contradicts recent WHO guidelines, by stating that, compared with never consuming alcohol, consumption of two drinks per day for men or one for women, is associated with lower all-cause mortality. In other words, people who drink limited amounts of any kind of alcohol, live longer.
The authors concluded, again with moderate certainty that moderate male and female drinkers have a lower risk of cardiovascular mortality. However, their certainty that moderate drinking specifically reduces the risk of heart attacks and nonfatal strokes is a slightly less encouraging ‘low’.
No conclusions on Alzheimer's or obesity
They were unable to draw any conclusions about a positive or negative link between moderate consumption and Alzheimer’s and cognitive decline. Surprisingly too, perhaps for some, they found no link between this kind of alcohol use and a risk of overweight and obesity, and changes in waist circumference.
Or many forms of cancer
Again, in contradiction to WHO advice, the report authors said that there was no evidence for a link between oral cavity, pharyngeal, esophageal, or laryngeal cancers.
But...
There were two forms of cancer that were highlighted as potential risks however. Sending an implicit warning to women with a genetic disposition towards this condition, they stated—with moderate certainty—that “moderate amount of alcohol is associated with a higher risk of female breast cancer.”
In the most convoluted phrasing of the press release, it was stated that “Among moderate alcohol consumers…higher amounts of moderate consumption are associated with a higher risk of colorectal cancer compared with lower amounts of alcohol consumption.” The certainty behind this finding was, however, ‘low’, and moderate alcohol consumers who consume alcohol moderately, are, it seems, not at risk.
The report will be pored over by those on both sides of the increasingly heated wine-and-health debate, but wine professionals who had almost taken for granted that the Dietary Guidelines for Americans would simply echo the WHO advisory against even the tiniest levels of consumption, should feel moderately less pessimistic.
