At a time of the year when many of us have been struggling with the question of which gifts to buy our nearest and dearest – and possibly for some who are less near and dear – my thoughts have been drawn back to the ‘paradox of choice’ or ‘choice overload’.
A succession of studies, beginning with the now-famous ‘Jam Study’ detailed in Professor Sheena Iyengar of Columbia University’s 1998 thesis, ‘Choice and its Discontents’, have shown that the more options potential buyers are offered, the less likely they are to make a purchase. As Iyengar’s research, in a branch of the upscale retailer Draeger’s, showed, while 50% more people came to taste the jams on offer when there were 24 of them, only 3% walked away with a jar. When six jams were presented, the sales rate shot up to 30%.
In 2004, Professor Barry Schwartz helped to popularise Iyengar's findings by publishing the best-selling Paradox of Choice in which he argued that reducing the number of options would also reduce consumer anxiety. For most consumers, in most situations, it was increasingly suggested, once the decision involved more than three-to-five, there was a high chance of no choice being made. Even so, it was claimed, there were circumstances in which this rule did not seem to apply.
Fifteen years after the original study, Alexander Chernev, Ulf Böckenholt and Joseph Goodman at the Kellogg School of Management conducted a meta-analysis of subsequent research and came up with a set of four factors that make what has become known as ‘choice paralysis’ more likely.
The four factors
When a person wants to make a quick and easy choice
In most markets where it is legal, wine is principally bought in supermarkets, along with the detergent and dogfood. Few shoppers want to linger in the wine aisle, if they go there at all. Many will happily prefer to pick up bottles from the special offer bin as they wheel their trolley around the store.
When the product is complex
(fewer choices simplify the decision-making process)
Wine is ludicrously complex – and becoming more so all the time. California recently gave itself a brand new AVA, in the shape of Crystal Springs of Napa Valley. This brings the total number of officially recognised regions in Napa alone to 18. Coincidentally, with the 2024 recognition of Laudun as an appellation, France’s Côtes-du-Rhône also now has 18 ‘crus’.
Many of the attendees at the 2024 ASI European, Middle East and African Sommelier Championship in Belgrade were fascinated by unfamiliar examples of Serbia’s local Prokupac grape they were shown. British critics have applauded the introduction by Tesco of a French example of Floreal, a recently-developed, resistant PIWI hybrid.
The existence of all these novel regions and grapes, along with new brands and blends, simply adds to the actual and potential complexity of the ‘wall of wine’.
When it’s difficult to compare alternatives
Unlike browsers in perfume departments who can sniff as many scents as their noses and brains can manage, wine shoppers are presented with hundreds of bottles, the quality and style of whose contents will only be revealed once they’ve handed over their cash and removed the cork or screwcap. By which time it’s too late to decide this wasn’t precisely what they wanted.
When the person doesn’t have clear preferences
There are very few really strong brands in wine (as opposed to Champagne) and the ones that do exist are often treated with disdain by ‘people who know about wine’. Even when a shopper does have a preference – for Rioja or Merlot, for example – there’s a high chance that there will be several examples to choose from. Which will be the ‘right’ one to buy?
More adventurous enthusiasts
For wine enthusiasts – maybe five percent of the total market – none of these four factors will matter a jot. By preference, they probably don’t do their wine shopping in supermarkets, and wherever they do it, they’ll happily spend a long time wandering around, picking up bottles, reading their labels and comparing their likely qualities. The wider the range – and more complex and fuller of exciting unfamiliar options – the better.
Comparing alternatives is what the enthusiasts most love doing, and the occasional disappointment is just part of the game as far as they are concerned. And, of course, while they will have styles they prefer – far more than the casual wine drinker – they are always looking for possible additions to their lists.
Wines that behave like spirits
Compare and contrast this bewildering wine scene to spirits which – for other reasons – are also losing traction, but significantly more slowly. The range on offer is limited, and there are always several familiar, recognisable, brands on offer.
Look too at the success of simply-labeled, widely-distributed wines like The Guv'nor/Mucho Mas, la Vieille Ferme, Yellow Tail, 19 Crimes and (in the US) The Prisoner, and Orin Swift along with various celebrity-linked wines, all of which behave like spirits in their ease-of-recognition.
Enter the discounters
The last place to go looking for wine enthusiasts is almost certainly the wine department of a German discounter like Lidl or Aldi where the range of – generally inexpensive – wine is far smaller than in the traditional mainstream supermarkets. But these chains with their limited-choice model have, quietly but rapidly, grown their market share. In the UK, in the 12 weeks ending February 2, 2020, according to Kantar World Panel, the pair had 14% of the British weekly shopping basket. Today, at the end of 2024, the equivalent figure is 20%.
Of course, there are wine lovers and others in search of a good bottle who’ll buy their more mundane groceries from these stores and do their wine shopping elsewhere. But the fact remains that the discounters’ narrow wine range does not appear to be a handicap for them. Indeed, they seem to be benefitting hugely from customers happy to be shielded from choice overload..
Which brings me to the other subject that is increasingly exercising the minds of many wine industry professionals right now: why are wine sales falling?
Choice paralysis
Is it possible that shoppers – particularly younger shoppers – are simply suffering from choice paralysis when they look at a shelf of wines or a wine list? Their parents might have felt social pressure to pick something – anything – because wine was the beverage they were expected to buy. Today that pressure has been largely removed: if anyone wants to order a favourite cocktail or a soft drink or a cup of coffee to drink with their steak or vegetarian stew, far fewer people are going to say they’re wrong.
Maybe we should all be learning from those highly successful retailers, the airport bookstores. For those who really want to browse, there may be a couple of hundred books to choose from in these outlets, but for everyone else, there’s a wall display with 25 or so best sellers.
This display is the equivalent of Iyengar’s six jams. And, quite possibly, a great place to find a Christmas present in a hurry – for one of those not so near or dear recipients.
(To learn more about the Jam Study and other examples of people ‘choosing not to choose’, watch Iyengar’s TED talk)
