“The market is making a mockery of Bordeaux en primeur”. When the head of Liv-ex, the leading fine wine broking platform, says this kind of thing, and points out that “La Mission 2015 traded this week on Liv-ex 8% below its ex-chateau release price”, I guess the rest of us ought to sit up and pay attention.
Since that post, Miles has gone further, providing a chart showing how Chateau Lafite 2009, another great wine in a great vintage, was released in 2010 for £5,976 per dozen, rose to a peak value of £14,350 after six months, before falling back and coasting along to its current value of… £5,914. According to the Bank of England calculator, simply to keep up with UK inflation, that wine should today be worth £8,024.
To listen to some Bordelais, the concept of buying their wine en primeur, while it is still in the barrel, is one of the pillars of their temple – a tradition that goes all the way back to… well, since you asked, the 1960s. That was a time when few chateau owners made a living from their wine – think of all those poor years like 1963, 1965, 1967 and 1969 – and it was a good way of solving their cash-flow problems.
The idea was quite sound for the buyers too. Prices for good vintages generally went up over five or ten years, allowing them to finance much of their drinking by purchasing and then selling off a few cases they didn't need for their own consumption. So, it was,as they say, a win-win.That was then. And this is now, and 'now' seems, as Miles’s reference to Lafite released en primeur 14 years ago reveals, to have been going on for rather a long time.
Broken model
To be fair, as my friend, Bordeaux expert Jane Anson points out, 2009 and 2010 were "unusual in that they coincided with the Chinese entry to the market and the Bordelais losing their heads... a huge mistake for which they are still paying." Anson also says that there are en primeur years like 2019 that can "can still offer value." But this was was a top quality vintage released during the pandemic, with en primeur prices that were often 20% or more lower than for the 2018.
There aren't many years like 2019, however. Stated bluntly, while en primeur may still work more regularly for small Pomerol and St Emilion properties and Côte d’Or Burgundies, whose wines may become harder to find over time, for larger Bordeaux estates, it looks like a broken model. A model that ought to be consigned to history, along with the fax and telex machines on which Bordeaux negociants used to rely.
Like Mark Twain’s death, the demise of Bordeaux en primeur has been frequently, and prematurely, reported over a great many years. But now it really does feel as though the priest is standing at the door waiting to read the last rights. Last year’s campaign was – to put it mildly – not a success, despite softer pricing, and excitement surrounding the 2024 is likely to be… subdued.
But, and it’s a big ‘but’, the en primeur tastings, even in the least inspiring vintages, are a great event, an annual party that a lot of people wouldn’t want to erase from their calendar. What if there were a way to keep that all going and to breath fresh life into the sick old dog?
En Primeur 2.0
My proposal for En Primeur 2.0. comes in three parts. The first of these looks very similar to what we have today: the chateaux all release their wine at the end of March or in early April but, and this is the crucial difference, the amount of wine that can be purchased at that time would be strictly limited, both in total volume and amounts per customer. My proposal would be that only 10% or a maximum of 15% be released at this stage.
Everybody will know that they are fighting to get a maximum of, say, five cases out of maybe two or three thousand.
Stage two comes 18 months later, when the wine has been bottled and the second tranche released - at a higher price.
Finally, five, ten and fifteen years on (these figures are all arbitrary), the chateau releases a succession of subsequent tranches at even higher prices.
The appeal of my proposal lies in the producer setting the price for their wine at every stage. Obviously, they won’t be able to stop anyone from selling it on the secondary market for less than the release price(s), but this is just as true of Côte d’Or Burgundies, Super-Tuscans and Champagnes that are traded throughout their lifetimes.
Worth cellaring?
And, of course, staged releases would address the complaint that ‘people are drinking our wines too young’, and force the producers who claim it’s worth cellaring their wine to support this assertion with their own money.
Clearly En Primeur 2.0 doesn’t sit comfortably with distribution through la Place de Bordeaux, but Florence Cathiard of Château Smith Haut Lafitte has made clear, as an estate-owner who is enjoying the profitable delights of selling their wine directly to US customers, la Place is another Bordeaux pillar that’s looking decidedly less sturdy than it was. But it’s entirey possible that some clever stonemasonry might come to its rescue. This strange, arcane, model has already had its La Place 2.0 moment – when it opened its doors to wines from other regions - and I’m sure it could be adopted to work with a new form of en primeur.
Twenty years on
The financial implications of En Primeur 2.0 are clear. The estates would, like most other wine producers, including the Champenois who have to finance stock for three years or longer in their caves, have to reconsider the way they handle their cashflow. But this has already been happening. The days when they hoped and expected to sell almost all of each harvest in barrel are long forgotten. The negociants and their customers and those customers’ customers no longer see much appeal in being the chateaux’ bankers.
A business can put off reforming the way it works for only so long - usually until around the time that the market on which it relies openly makes a mockery of its business model.
The views and opinions expressed in the Devil's Advocate pieces are those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of the publication. They are intended to provoke discussion and debate. If you would like to offer your own response to this or any other article, please email the editor-in-chief, Anja Zimmer at zimmer@meininger.de.
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