“Young people want authentic, lighter-bodied wines made from indigenous grape varieties.”
If you haven’t heard or read this statement, I can only imagine you’ve been stranded in a cellar with no signal for your smartphone, or in a similarly isolated distant vineyard. It is regularly trotted out at conferences and in conversations as though it were an incontrovertible fact to set alongside the wetness of water.
The next time you come across these words, however, if you have an opportunity, please ask the person voicing them to describe the kind of wine they personally favour. I’d make a substantial bet on them not saying ‘full-bodied’ or ‘powerful’. I suspect that while there is undoubtedly a growing demand for ‘authentic’ lighter wines, the suggestion that this is the only game in town for Gen Z and Millennials is heavily driven by wishful thinking. Often by people who rarely or never set foot in a supermarket wine aisle or talk to casual wine drinkers of any age.
What’s my evidence? Well, we could start with the success of Barefoot, the world’s most successful wine brand which, according to Statista has revenues of $555m. Or of multi-country, fighting-varietal brands like iHeart. Then we could look at global planting and sales trends that show the continued growth of a small number of popular varieties. Are the professionals across the globe who are still putting Cabernet Sauvignon and Chardonnay vines into the ground all ill-informed idiots? Or are they, just conceivably, looking at their current sales patterns and listening to their distributors?
But there are other styles that I suspect the ‘everyone-wants-lighter-bodied’ folk rarely encounter in the restaurant, fine-wine shop bubbles they inhabit.
For starters, there’s the $200m+, millennial-focused, bourbon-barrel-aged wine market. There are now over 60 brands including Mondavi, Beringer and Fetzer, estimated sales of over 20m bottles that taste of American whisky and have ABVs of 14.5-15.5%.
Extra-Extra-Large: by name and by nature
But maybe we could also look at an apparently highly successful wine brand called XXL whose youthful target market is clearly evident from its website. Living up to the brand name, the XXL range of flavoured wines pack a serious punch (no pun intended) with ABVs of 16%. Apart from the Cali Extreme 21, which is 21%.
The young brand was created specifically for the US market and uses wine produced in Moldova, though this origin goes unmentioned on the website. Over the first 10 months of 2024, some 15m litres of this product were apparently shipped into the US, which suggests that at least a few Americans want some muscle in their glass.
Then there’s XXL’s even bolder Australian counterpart, Mullet. This similarly unapologetic, youthful, brand actually labels one of its wines as ‘Hard Shiraz’ and proudly draws attention to its 17% ABV. Mullet wines are nationally distributed in Australia through Dan Murphy stores, so somebody must be drinking it.
Pendulum swings?
Are these brands outliers – pendulum swings away from a trend towards lower-strength? Or might they be indicative of a significant market sector that could grow? And, in either case, how do you feel about them? Do you wish they didn’t exist? Or do you imagine that, if successful, they might help to slow or even reverse the decline in wine consumption?
Or do you think we should exclusively focus on producing and selling the authentic, light-bodied wines we’d all – apparently – really like to see people drinking?
Would you prefer a smaller wine industry that has maintained its integrity? Or one that has adapted to a market with no respect or reverence for what many believe wine should be?
And, if you favour the former option, how do you think we are going to make all those lighter-bodied wines in a world with a climate that gets warmer with almost every year?
Stronger Americans
According to US Bureau of Census and US Trade Online, until 2004, 97% of the wine exported from the US had an ABV of 14% or less. Today just a decade on, over a third – 35% – weighs in at over that figure. According to Liv-ex data covering the more premium end of the market, the average is closer to 14.5%, while the same data suggest that both Tuscany and Piedmont now produce more wine at over 14% than under.
I raise these topics in the context of a US wine scene that, according to Sipsource has just recorded an 8% fall in wine sales (compared to 4% for spirits). Of course, as with investments, a single year’s performance should never be seen as indicative of what is going to happen in future. But there is no more reason to say that 2025 will see zero decline or any kind of growth than for it to repeat that 8% fall. Indeed, a wise strategist would include a series of positive and negative scenarios in their planning.
But then again, a wise strategist would also avoid listening to too many people who are, in effect, talking about trends that happen to reflect their own taste.
