The key unknowns of 2025 are obviously the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the continued shift towards nationalist governments in Europe, the literally - unpredictable - behaviour of a US president-elect who’s threatening sanctions, and the consequent likely state of the global and US economies.
Guessing any of these is way beyond my competence and pay-grade, but I’ll do my best with the wine industry. In doing so, however, I’d just make one request: if any of what follows is not to your taste, please don’t shoot the messenger.
Health and lifestyle
Warnings and advisories
Whether we like it or not, anti-alcohol messaging is going to continue and it will amplify. Even if the new edition of the US Dietary Guidelines for Americans doesn’t go as far as the WHO and Finland in warning against the consumption of any alcohol, I’m betting that the recommended limits will be smaller. And, however unfair we may think them, cancer warning labels are almost certainly on their way. These warnings will be accompanied by a reduction in alcohol consumption, but this will be happening in any case for a number of other reasons.
Well-being
Most millennial and Gen Z consumers are not necessarily very focused on cancer and longevity.
What concerns them is their mental and physical well-being, and the image they portray on social media images. For all these reasons, and especially as they increasingly use their smartwatches to monitor disappointing blood oxygen levels the morning after drinking, they’ll continue to reduce their alcohol consumption. Google research in 2019 found that 41% of Gen Zers associate alcohol with 'vulnerability', 'anxiety, and 'abuse'. A larger number - 60% - of British Gen Zers linked it to a ‘loss of control’, while 49% are aware of their online image when socialising. More recent studies are unlikely to show any change to these attitudes.
Come Over - Not Just In October
There will be efforts to extend last year’s Come Over October campaign to promote social wine drinking and counter Dry January/Sober October globally, and at other times of the year. Many wine companies and regions will support them; some will prefer not to.
Anti-obesity drugs
According to a KFF report published last May, around 12% of Americans had already tried taking Glucagon-like peptide 1 - GLP-1 - anti-obesity Semaglutide, Liraglutide and Tirzepatide drugs like Saxenda, Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro.
GLP-1 works by trigging the release of insulin from the pancreas, reducing glucose from entering the bloodstream, slowing digestion and increasing the ‘satiety’ sensation people feel after eating.
Roughly half of these people had given up the medication, often most likely because of monthly costs of $1,000 or more. In other markets, however, the price of the drugs is substantially lower. In the UK Ozempic is available online for £100 ($125), while the biggest chain, Boots, offers GLP-1 for £199-£299 ($250-375). In France, the cost is €75-100 ($78-104), some of which may be reimbursed by the health service.
In any case, all of these costs are almost certain to fall as the patents expire in 2026 in China and 2030 in the US.
So, what has this to do with wine? As a 2022 US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism report revealed, “Semaglutide dose-dependently reduced binge-like alcohol drinking in mice and rats.” It seems that the drugs “moderated” GABA, the gamma-aminobutyric acid receptors in the brain responsible for the ‘buzz’ associated with moderate consumption of alcohol.
And, what works for rats, also seems to affect human beings. There is growing anecdotal evidence that many users of these drugs feel less inclined to drink any form of alcohol. If GLP-1 becomes as affordable and as widely-used as many predict, the effect on the food and drink industries will be dramatic. Last year, Nestlé reacted by launching a range of frozen foods for GLP-1 users and in December it went even further by coming out with Boost, its own brand of hunger-supressing drinks. Alcohol businesses, take note.
No and low
Alcohol-free
There have been plenty of predictions that sales of wine-based alcohol-free - AF - beverages will grow by at least 10% this year. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that it’s going to be much bigger than that.
For several firmly entwined reasons.
The 2024 launch by French Bloom of a $100 AF sparkling wine and the subsequent investment in the brand by LVMH were game-changers that have changed the way other companies view zero-alcohol. If it’s good enough for the world’s biggest luxury goods company… The success of AF beer which is predicted to represent 20% of the beer category by 2030 is attracting attention too.
This positive view will have had a further boost by the announcement by Torres that it expects a 20% hike in its Natureo and AF Sangre de Toro brands, and that the family-owned business is to spend €6m on a dedicated new non-alcoholic wine cellar.
Many wine professionals who routinely dismiss the category because they haven’t found any examples they have liked, will discover some that are more palatable to them. And even if they don’t, they’ll acknowledge a growing demand from customers, especially in the on-trade where AF beverages offer a more profitable lunchtime alternative to mineral water.
Zebra stripes
A 2024 German study suggests that, while meat is still widely consumed, over 75% of the population can now be loosely defined as flexitarians who don’t eat it daily. Numerator research estimates that 20% of US households firmly fit this definition, with one in two buying plant-based food. A similar pattern seems to be increasingly true of alcohol, with people deciding not to drink during the week, for example, even though they might do consume large quantities on a Friday night when they preload with wine before drinking spirits in a club. This has been nicknamed 'Zebra' drinking, even if the pattern is less regular than the animal's stripes.
Coupled with a growing tendency to drink non-alcoholic drinks and alcohol on the same occasion, Zebra drinking will be increasingly relevant to the wine industry and to those who imagine that ‘moderate’ consumption involves limiting oneself to a glass or two of wine per day.
Mid-Strength
The UK used to be a much bigger influence on global wine trends than it is today, but it is still a huge import market, and the new excise duty rules that come into force this month will not go unnoticed by larger producers with significant distribution there. From February 1st 2025, while the duty and VAT sales tax on a bottle of 13.5% will be £3.59 ($4.46); one with 8.5% will be taxed at just £2.05 ($2.55).
That £1.54 ($1.93) difference is hugely significant in a market where consumers still want to buy wine for a retail price of £5-7.50 ($6.27-9.40), and it will drive a move towards a boom in 7-8% ‘mid-strength’ wines for the UK market.
But there will be other factors that will boost this trend.
Finland has just relaxed its monopoly alcohol distribution rules. Beverages with ABVs of 8% or less can now be sold in supermarkets. What starts in that small Nordic market often spreads to its larger neighbour, Sweden, and beyond.
In the US, where there are no high alcohol taxes or - in most states - monopolies to contend with, brands like Mondavi with its Woodbridge Sessions mid-strength range are playing on their ‘low carbs’ and ‘low calories’.
Put all this together, and you have a recipe for a growing sector.
Social licence
Finally, there is the ’social licence’ that permits various activities. Fifty years ago, it was acceptable to smoke cigarettes in front of children and around the dinner table. By contrast, being a vegan, turning up with a partner of the same sex, or not drinking wine with your meal were all seen as ‘odd’. Today, attitudes to all of these has changed and that may, and I think will, have a snowball effect.
The social licence to say "Oh go on, have another glass! Let's finish the bottle! Don't be such a lightweight." certainly seems to have been widely revoked.
Whereas the increasingly frequent experience of sitting next to a non meat-eater or drinker of non-alcoholic wine at social events, may give a growing number of people the confidence to declare their own preferences in a way they might not previously have done.
Next week, I will offer a few more predictions, focusing on some of the other major factors that are set to challenge the industry.
Time will tell how many, if any, of these predictions are accurate, but we live in a time of continuous and rapid change, and anyone who fails to appreciate this may have to count the cost of wearing blinkers.
