by James Halliday
2006 set records for the earliest vintage start in many parts of Australia, varieties coming in up to one month earlier than normal. They are proving to be short-lived records, though, with last year s dates being eclipsed in 2007 by another two or
three weeks, even more in some locations.
The malign influences of drought and frost are the main culprits, but it seems there has been an ongoing effect on vine metabolism, leading to what are euphemistically called light bunches . In other words, the berries are small, and desiccation both of berry flesh and the stalk itself are the causes. Ironically, and happily, the desiccation is not obvious; grape shrivel is not widespread, and the vines themselves, carrying a low crop, are standing up well.
The concern is that the foreshortened growing period will reduce flavours and produce what might be termed artificial ripeness . Once again, nature is springing surprises, for some regions are reporting good flavours for some varieties.
Yet another problem not covered in earlier reports is the smoke contamination from the bushfires which have destroyed over 1 million hectares since October 2006, with some still burning, for northern Victorian regions giving rise to the same problem of smoke taint encountered in 2005. The sad lesson of that vintage was that, even with the most sophisticated use of reverse osmosis, it was impossible to entirely eliminate the taint. This may well make a further substantial tonnage unmarketable.
Instead of an earlier, seemingly pessimistic outlook of 1.5 million tonnes, estimates now range between 1 million and 1.2 million tonnes for 2007. It is also agreed on all sides that there will be adverse flow-on effects for the 2008 vintage, resulting in overnight evaporation of the wine lake.
The question underlying all of this is that which dominates the news day in, day out in many parts of the world. Is this due to climate change which will be ongoing, or will it prove to be part of a much shorter cycle equivalent to many periods of warming and cooling, some sudden, over the last 1,000 years? Another irony manifests itself here: if the changes are being solely driven by mankind, they can presumably be controlled or reversed, the uncertainties being the cost and time involved in securing that reversal. But if the warming is due in whole or in part to other agencies, and hence outside our control, we may be in for an even harder time than we imagine.
